The 20th Party Congress | Capital Economics

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Recoveries still lagging in the major coastal markets

Q2 data showed a mixed picture across the three sectors. For offices, the northern coastal markets continue to lag, with rent growth turning positive but still weaker than most other markets. Houston had an awful quarter for demand, and new supply in Seattle pushed vacancy up quickly there too. In the apartments sector demand slowed across the markets. Southern metros like Miami and Austin continue to see stronger demand, but there were also decent gains elsewhere, including Boston and D.C. And for industrial, there was a rebound in demand after a slow Q1, but it remains below the levels seen in H2 2021. Phoenix was the big winner here, continuing to benefit from extremely low vacancy in LA, Riverside and San Diego. But capital growth slowed notably in Q2 and we expect an even sharper slowdown in Q3 as cap rates face upward pressure.

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